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Joined: Jul 2001
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I know our economies are intertwined, but this just seems to coincidental to be just a "banking and loaning" or "economy" issue now. Someone is pulling some strings somewhere and things are getting out of control. Something big is going to happen, and it isn't going to have a god damn thing to do with the economy. I don't think the bailout or these proposed euro stim packs do either. They are an obvious mask for something else. There is something very very wrong here. Wake up people. I don't know if anyone else was paying attention, but when they were voting the FIRST time on the proposed bailout stocks were dropping at record rates when they were on the voting floor (keep in mind everyone had expected it to pass the first time around). The next day after they had voted AGAINST it stocks had shot back up to their original level. A week later they APPROVE the bailout and stocks plummet AGAIN and continue with no end in sight. There is some SERIOUS manipulation going on here, this is not good.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/10/16/world.markets/index.html

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Lord of Cruelty
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The main economic countries have to work in unison on this for many reasons.

ie: One reason is capital flight.

FDIC insures your deposit up to $100k, lets say Ireland suddenly insures all deposits. Then you would see large depositors move their money to Irish banks as they are afraid that banks are failing.

If you had 1 million dollars in your bank, and lose faith in it surviving. If it failed you would get 100k back and lose 900k. Most folks would prefer to avoid that. So you move your 1 million to an Irish bank. Now your bank has to hand you 1 million dollars to transfer. Due to fractional reserves (they don't just keep your money in the bank, they invest it), they have to liquidate financial instruments to give you your money. People are not buying these instruments, they have a lack of faith in them. So they have to sell these at a loss to give you your million. Now due to banking laws, they do not have the minimum amount of cash on hand versus deposits. They have to liquidate more to make that ratio correct. Lets say it cost the bank 3 million dollars to give you your million. Not too big of a deal, banks can scrape up your million and not suffer.

Now 10,000 people with 1 million dollars do the same thing to the same bank. The bank suddenly has to repatriate 10 billion dollars to depositors....in a couple of days. Now the market is choking on the assets the bank is trying to liquidate, the price goes to 10 cents per dollar.... Now the bank has to sell 100 billion dollars, lose 90 billion to hand 10 billion back to the depositors. Bank dies (see Indymac).

Once this starts happening, people get nervous and start moving their money to safety (in this example Ireland), suddenly banks are detonating like popcorn in a microwave. It is a feedback loop.

Now repeat this on a national scale.

You can bankrupt a nation as fast as Iceland detonated. Iceland went illiquid instantly and is now broke, as a nation. They have 4 to 5 weeks of food left. Thier currency is now not accepted, they must pay in Euros. They are rationing Euros to get food shipped in. Suppliers will not extend them credit, they have to pay in advance. Last time I looked, Iceland is a big pile of Ice on top of volcanoes, not much in the way of making money other than cod fishing. They are in deep deep shit.

So by making these moves in unison, the countries/economies involved are saving one another from such capital flight. If one major player did not participate, then it would cause such "banking structural integrity" issues to arise in other countries.

This is just one of the reasons, it is kind of esoteric and obtuse but it has occured in the past so they knew they had to disuade such an event.




"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds" Einstein.
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Lord of Cluth Heals
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Quote:

You can bankrupt a nation as fast as Iceland detonated. Iceland went illiquid instantly and is now broke, as a nation. They have 4 to 5 weeks of food left. Thier currency is now not accepted, they must pay in Euros. They are rationing Euros to get food shipped in. Suppliers will not extend them credit, they have to pay in advance. Last time I looked, Iceland is a big pile of Ice on top of volcanoes, not much in the way of making money other than cod fishing. They are in deep deep shit.




Well put Aricoh.

Iceland had a boom going on its little ice island called the huge commodities boom. They were quickly becoming one of the largest exporters and refiners of aluminum in the entire world. When the boom ended, however (see the demise of growth in China, India, and other emerging market countries), so to it went their #1 inflow of capital.

As Arioch mentioned, Icelandic banks took this newfound wealth and made investments and issued global debt to keep expanding its Aluminum foundries and other projects. Once the liquidity crunch hit the world, UK depositors (the largest group of depositors in these Iceland banks) changed all of their assets back into Sterling and pulled from these banks...as such, the banks capital ratios plummeted and the banks had to turn to Russia for credit. You know the world is a steaming pile of dogshit if Iceland cannot turn to one of the 31 NATO countries for a loan and has to go the Russians.

Europe is a tricky beast. They have to monitor the financial health of all the Euroland countries, but the problem is they are all different. Spain and UK have housing issues. Germany is gripped with a slowing GDP and subprime US exposure. France's technology boom is long over, but the Scandanavian countries are swimming with capital and a booming economy...how can you regulate them all when they are all so different....

quite the pickle. That is why you often see all the Fed's moving in concert with each other....


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Lord of Cruelty
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What I found astounding was how rapidly the EU concocted, and launched their effort. They argue about everything, hell they can't even agree on the shape of a tomato. This tells of the breadth, depth and danger in this mess.

As an aside, when 30 days is up on the insurers of Lehmans 400 billion dollars worth of toxic sludge, what do you think is going to happen. That load of melanine tainted assets sold for about 10 cents on the dollar. AIG and other insured that crap and are on the hook for about 360 billion bucks. Granted they reinsured it, but they're the first picket in that fence of stupidity and have to answer to that 1 million creditors. Just curious on your take on how that insurance ebola will burst through the skin of the market. Noones talking, barely mentioning it. It's like it being treated as a bedridden crazy pedaphile grandfather hidden in the back room.




"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds" Einstein.
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Quote:

What I found astounding was how rapidly the EU concocted, and launched their effort. They argue about everything, hell they can't even agree on the shape of a tomato. This tells of the breadth, depth and danger in this mess.

As an aside, when 30 days is up on the insurers of Lehmans 400 billion dollars worth of toxic sludge, what do you think is going to happen. That load of melanine tainted assets sold for about 10 cents on the dollar. AIG and other insured that crap and are on the hook for about 360 billion bucks. Granted they reinsured it, but they're the first picket in that fence of stupidity and have to answer to that 1 million creditors. Just curious on your take on how that insurance ebola will burst through the skin of the market. Noones talking, barely mentioning it. It's like it being treated as a bedridden crazy pedaphile grandfather hidden in the back room.




1) not all of that is toxic sludge. There are MANY subprime bonds out there that are still paying out full cash flows and principal payments, but is the equivalent of "throwing the baby out with the bathwater". I have seen pricing sheets on first tranche, first lein loans that are being "priced" at 50 cents on the dollar. There is no way that stuff will go lights out. Worst case scenario on it is extension risk goes out and the bond just takes longer to pay out....THAT my friend (which you are well aware of) is the problem with the market. Many of those assets are money good, noone has the risk appetite to last through the storm. The part that is the HUGEST disconnect in all of this is the "default rate" versus the behavior of the markets.....ABX swaps (subprime home equity loan indices) are down over 80% or around there....ACTUAL defaults are only at roughly 20% for even the highest risk borrowers....see what i mean here? Honestly, if i had the capital (see the problem) i would be pouring it into this area of the market. These bonds are yielding high returns (look at munis too...same issue.....not the underlying security but who insured it and the credit risk they bring to the table) and have a high probability of paying out....just need to be able to ride the storm....

2) AIG was propped up by the US Government for a reason. They are the #1 issuer of CDS (Credit Default Swaps for the layperson) and the rumor is most of it was backed by AIG (my true question in all of this is how much do the German and French insurance companies have on the books...only time will tell...the reason it isnt out so far is they have significantly different accounting standards than the US..DAMN YOU SARBANES OXLEY!!!!).......You think the JP Morgan and Bear merger was by accident? At one time JP Morgan was the most levered institution on the street, tot he tune of $150 trillion (yes with a T)...the rumor i heard was that over 40% of that leverage/swap exposure was with Bear...why not gobble them up on a government sponsored deal and IMMEDIATELY delever youself....brilliant...another scary CDS stat...the entire outstanding notional value of CDS is approximately 55 trillion...this is higher than the combined GDP of the world....ugh...

3) AIG wasnt the only insurer of Lehman....Allianz, MetList, Deutsche, etc. are all on the hook.....once they put it up for auction, watch the performance of their senior bonds...i will be that the price climbs to almost 50 cents on the dollar as CDS payers SCRAMBLE to buy the bonds back for exchange....

4) the part of this equation that is truly scary to me is the prime brokerage aspect of it.....want to look up a fancy word? Look up rehypothification...here is an article to go through the laborious work i would try to lay out here.... a new fancy word to use at cocktail parties

i know i rambled some....ugh



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