I thought it was a good exchange.
The dollar has been due for a tumble for some time, it just happens to be in a free fall due to the economic situation we are in.
The overspending, lack of saving, and housing situation we are in put the economy in a horrendous position. The one thing that Ron Paul does not note that with the current situation, inflation, stagflation, and deflation will ALL make your savings evaporate. The only scenario to preserve that value is in a growth economy which we clearly do not have. We have been in a bull market effectively since the early 1980s......
Arioch, i wouldnt say the "carry trade" is on for the US dollar yet. We still have the highest sovereign paying interest rate on our debt in the world so it is still VERY expensive for people to borrow or short our dollar in the long term. The bet that IS in effect however is the short term prognosis on the dollar. The December overnight futures are pricing in a 100% chance that the Fed drops rate 25 bps and like 90% chance that the Fed drops 50....Fed does drop rates, the dollar freefalls some more......the bet of the dollar goes down versus the euro is the easiest layup out there....let me see if i cannot pull together some global rate graphs today at work.
Me and my boss did an economic piece in May talking about where we have been and how large investors should structure a portfolio. PM me if you would like to see it.
