it looks more and more like Paulson wants to overpay for the debt (ie. Hold-to-maturity value) so it certainly looks like fleecing of the taxpayers. Try not to get so caught up in thinking bail outs is a liberal value. That is just dumbass talk. Corportacracy is a right-wing governing theory.
The bonds they are going to be purchasing will still be trading on a discount relative to where they are in the marketplace.
Do you have any idea on bonds are traded in the marketplace? This isnt a rip or slam on what you know, but here is some background.
Bonds are not traded on any major market or exchange (except for Treasuries). The way to trade bond and securities is done the old fashioned way, bid and ask auction pricing. On Bloomberg (the largest trading platform in the world) if you say wanted to buy a bond, you effectively put out a "post" saying how much you are willing to buy a bond for. The problem is there are MILLIONS upon MILLIONS of bonds in the world and not everyone wants the same bond at the same time. In addition, with all bid/ask systems if noone wants to buy a bond due to liquidity or risk factors you "hold back" bids and capital and just flat out not buy them regardless of quality or ratings.
There are computer models or "matricies" that can price securities based on quality, coupon, maturity, duration, credit enhancements, prepay facilities, etc. etc. that can give a general "idea" on how much a bond is worth. However, as we are all aware, that bond is only as good as the price you want to pay for it.
The problem in today's market isnt the fact all of these subprime bonds or mortgage bonds are bad, its just that NOONE wants to bear any risk of owning them. Mortgage bonds, subprime loans, and mortgage tranches are made up of THOUSANDS of indivdiual mortgages. You would have to know every mortgage, every house, the income of the people owning the mortgages, the quality of the house, neighborhood, etc etc. etc. to really understand if that bond is a "good" bond. Since noone has the manpower or skill to do that, they just flat out dont own the bond.
The resulting effect is the "throw the baby out with the bathwater" mentality. An investor is effectively saying "since the only bonds i know are the ones guaranteed by Freddie and Fannie, i am only going to own those, not any of the others"....there is essentially no market.
Now the difference in prices is as follows:
Hold-to-Maturity. You enter all of the bonds characteristics into the model, it will spit out a "price". You can then look up the bond on major rating agencies and who serviced the loan and make additional assumptions. That is the "price" of the bond. By doing this, these bonds will be priced at around 70-80 cents on the dollar. As such, the government will gain 20% upside and all the coupon payments til maturity.
"Fire Sale Prices" These are the prices other investors will actually pay in the marketplace. THIS IS A NUMBER THAT IS TOTALLY MANIPULATIVE. The same bond that is still cash good and paying of coupons will trade between 10 cents and 20 cents on the dollar in a fire sale situation.
The solution to this is exactly what Sweden did. You pay the HTM price, take on the downside risk, but you take a pound of flesh in doing the deal in the form of warrants, options or ownership in the company that is asking for the bailout.
I hate all of the politicians...they dont know their asshole from a hole in the ground. I am a HUGE Paulson fan. He knows what he is doing and what needs to be done. He has already tapped the best and brightest in the fixed income world to help him manage through this problem. He positioned Goldman Sachs in such a way before taking his post that they are for the most part totally immune to this problem. He is a pure killer too when it comes to dealing with people and problems.